Notes

Slide Show

Outline

1	LONG TERM RECOVERY ISSUES: LESSONS FROM NORTHRIDGE (and some other places, too) Daniel J. Alesch, Ph. D. Professor Emeritus, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay
2	Since Northridge, we have a better understanding of the widespread consequences of urban earthquakes the long term consequences for people and for businesses how exposed and vulnerable we really are
3	What we have learned about the consequences of earthquakes We already knew a lot about how much damage earthquakes can have on the built environment
4	Now we know that the impacts go far beyond damage to structures and that they last a long time . . . Personal and psychological Social and community Economic Governmental
5	Economic effects Costs are almost always undercounted; losses to individual businesses can continue for many years Major income and wealth transfers of within and between regions “Ripple” or systemic effects in tightly-coupled systems
6	Long-term Personal and Family Effects “ A never-ending nightmare” Housing disruption Income disruption Marital and family stress Effects on the elderly, especially singles
7	Neighborhood and Community Effects Neighborhoods often change dramatically demographics land use systemic relationships At first, it is difficult to recognize the changes New community networks have to be built
8	Effects on local governments Lost tax revenues New voters and constituents in old places Often, shifts in economic activity to other locations
9	Finally, we learned that Recovery, if it means returning to the status quo ex ante (what existed before the event), is just an illusion. We can never get back to what existed before. We try to achieve new viability in a different environment
10	What, then, are the long term issues and challenges?
11	We know what to do . . . If you cannot move away from the places where earthquakes occur, then Reduce your exposure Reduce your vulnerability
12	The problem is that we do not know how to do it very well. We are good at enacting new building codes We are good at learning more about geology We are not very good at overcoming social, political, and economic obstacles to improved safety
13	Issue 1: How can we stem, and then reduce, the risks from earthquakes? We have to get beyond relying on engineering approaches to the problem We have to learn how to use both technical and non-technical approaches to risk reduction
14	Issue 2: How can we organize ourselves to address the problem? We organize ourselves by discipline rather than by problem We support researchers by discipline It doesn’t work very well We need an interdisciplinary, team approach
15	Issue 3: What should we focus on and what kinds of policies can we devise? Focus New structures Existing structures Land use Urban policy Kinds of Policies Regulation? Education? Financial incentives? Other
16	Issue 4: How much should we spend on the problem? How safe is safe enough? How much can or should a person, community, or nation spend to reduce the earthquake risk? How does it compare with other priorities? With other dangers?
17	Issue 5: Who should bear the cost? Important equity issues To what extent should those who do not take the risk subsidize those who know the risk and take it anyway?
18	We still have a lot to learn about how to reduce the dangers from urban earthquakes. These meetings in this wonderful location will contribute to our learning.
19	Domo arigato gozaimashita and thank you very much.
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