Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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Group 8: Approaches to earthquake mitigation programs
  • That integrate land use planning,
  • Building construction and civil countermeasures,
  • Education and public awareness
  • To reduce risk to disaster prone communities
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Charles Scawthorn &   Hitomi Murakami, Co-Chairs
  • US participants
    • Fouad Bendimerad
    • Craig Comartin
    • Mark Yashinsky




  • Japanese participants
    • Nanae Muraoka
    • Tadamichi Yamashita
    • Nodoka Ujita
    • Harumi Yashiro
    • Fukushima


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Mitigating for earthquake hazards other than ground shaking
  • By Yashinsky, M.
  • Caltrans roads and bridges
  • Research and mitigation efforts for landslides, liquefaction, surface faulting, tsunami, and other hazards
  • Past damage -> Current research -> Methods of analysis -> Mitigation


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Sensitivity of urban seismic risk assessment to hazard parameters
  • By Bendimerad, F. and C. Morgat
  • A case study of Istanbul, Turkey
  • Hazard estimation models for North Anatolian Fault Zone
  • Vulnerability for 14 building types
  • The limitations and uncertainties of seismic risk analysis: gap between specialists and end-users
  • Losses are more accurate way to measure risk than the earthquake probability


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Effect of diversifying facilities on seismic risks of enterprises
  • By Fukushima, S. and H. Yashiro
  • Portfolio of buildings, Tokyo
  • Procedure to estimate risk curve, and to quantify seismic risk of portfolio
  • Risk control; redistribution of assets, retrofit of buildings
  • Effects of divergence on the PML are related with correlation factors
  • Q: Sufficient data for vulnerability curves?
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Systematic seismic risk management for multiple facilities
  • By Comartin, C. D.
  • Stanford Univ., UC Berkeley, BARTransit
  • Vulnerability assessment, priorities and implementation, post disaster response planning
  • Performance of system during and post eq.
  • Disclosure of the risk to students, staff, faculty is difficult, but important to realize retrofit & mitigation programs
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Level 3 application of HAZUS in regional earthquake loss estimation
  • By Scawthorn, C., et al.
  • Case study of San Francisco's Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPSS)
  • Impact assessment, earthquake repair requirements, future seismic hazard mitigation
  • Community involvement is critical: stakeholders, i.e. local residents, business people
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Development of microscopic-simulator of earthquake disaster with residents
  • By Ujita, N., et al.
  • Downtown Tokyo with narrow streets, high vulnerability and fire risk
  • 1/2500 scale simulation
  • Building response, occupant entrapment, SAR, evacuation, fire spreading
  • Q: Can local residents face too much reality?
  • Q: Reliability of detailed estimation?
  • Q: How to obtain detailed data?
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Seismic capacity evaluation of RC school buildings damaged by the 2001 Geiyo earthquake
  • By Muraoka, N., et al.
  • 100 public school building with seismic capacity evaluation vs. eq damage
  • PGA=425cm/s2,  within linear response range
  • Q: How to promote seismic retrofit of school buildins?  Budget, priority, disclosure?
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Proposal for sustainable restoration of damaged dwellings
  • By Murakami, H. et al.
  • From the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake
  • Assistance to promote repair and retrofit of damaged dwellings than demolition and rebuilding
  • Database of repair and retrofit cases for future response program


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Issues and research needs
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As the basis for risk reduction programs, loss estimates need to be useful, and used.
  • Methods and techniques need to be developed and used by the earthquake community, for
    • Development of mitigation coalitions,
    • Identification of user needs,
    • Identification and translation of mitigation context,
    • Communication of results (social marketing)
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"Loss estimation need to"
  • Loss estimation need to
    • Be transparent
    • Have robust measures of loss and consequence
  • Case studies of successful/ unsuccessful loss estimation/ reduction/ policy processes and projects
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Identify meaningful results to decision makers and stakeholders
  • Development of a taxonomy of decision-makers and stakeholders
  • Survey and compile their needs
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Sensitivity of loss estimates
  • Comprehensive parametric study showing variation of loss estimation results for various factors (eg, correlation, earthquake models…)
  • US-JAPAN model comparison
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Detailed compilation of data on earthquake effects, losses and impacts
  • Develop a framework and vehicle for archiving of loss data - not just ground motions, but also damage, economic losses, BI, social disruption
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Non-shaking earthquake hazards
  • Methods for making non-shaking earthquake hazards loss estimates
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Micro-simulation and visualization of losses
  • Develop new methods for detailed micro loss estimation, and visualization of temporal evolution and other dimensions of losses