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USGS Expert Elicitation Report

Following the success of an expert elicitation workshop conducted in Sept 2012 in Lisbon, which was primarily funded by the GEM Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in early 2013 decided to provide financial assistance to the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) to conduct a second expert elicitation exercise. The primary objective of this exercise was to rigorously apply Cooke’s procedure for the first time in the field of seismic collapse fragility estimation in order to develop collapse vulnerability relationships for key U.S. construction types. These fragility relationships will eventually be used within the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system operated by National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) at Golden Colorado.

The Oakland survey demonstrates the application of Cooke’s classical method in soliciting expert judgments for estimating the structural collapse fragility of selected U.S. construction types known to be particularly vulnerable under strong shaking. Cooke’s classical method is based on the principle of objective calibration scoring and hypothesis testing in classical statistics (Cooke,1991). Cooke's approach consists of estimating two separate scores for each individual’s contribution and then multiplies them together to get an overall weight for each expert.

Download the final technical report on this workshop below.

Hear what participants had to say about the expert elicitation process.

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